These are the forecasts for 2025. For the previous year's forecast, see the March Madness 2024 page. For the current year's forecast, see the main March Madness page, where details about the models and methods can also be found.
The factorization models are referred to as 'PMF.' The 'Baseline' PMF models are estimated without hyperpriors, but '+Hyperpriors' models include conjugate hyperpriors for the unconditional mean and variance of latent offense/defense vectors. The Elo-type models are referred to as 'Aug. Elo' and the '+Margin of Victory' version models the margin of victory jointly with the binary game outcome.
PMF (Baseline): [Matchups], [Bracket]
PMF (+Hyperpriors): [Matchups], [Bracket]
Aug. Elo (Baseline): [Matchups], [Bracket]
Aug. Elo (+Margin of Victory): [Matchups], [Bracket]
PMF (Baseline): [Matchups], [Bracket]
PMF (+Hyperpriors): [Matchups], [Bracket]
Aug. Elo (Baseline): [Matchups], [Bracket]
Aug. Elo (+Margin of Victory): [Matchups], [Bracket]