"It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future."
These are the forecasts for 2026. For the previous year's forecast, see the March Madness 2025 page.
Forecasts are made with two types of models: Bayesian matrix factorizations following Salakhutdinov and Mnih (2008) and Elo-type models. I also use the Elo-type models to produce team and conference rankings based on the parameter values at the posterior mode, but 2026 is the first year I've published them.
The estimated models produce the marginal posterior odds of team 'x' beating team 'y.' These are presented graphically under 'Matchups.' The 'Bracket' produced by each model is generated by choosing the team favored by the marginal posterior odds.